ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia
In ten days, Ethiopia's federal army and its allied militias have taken Tigray's regional capital, Mekelle, pushed north through Adigrat and entered Adwa, a town about 40 kilometers (24 miles) from the Eritrean border. The advance, which began after an armed alliance that includes the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) launched its own offensive in late September, has effectively ended the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, which the TPLF declared dead in July. It has also drawn Ethiopia and Eritrea to the edge of open confrontation, with each side accusing the other of preparing for war over access to the Red Sea.
The central question for the region is no longer whether the Pretoria deal survives, but whether the TPLF can regroup into the kind of insurgency that returned to Mekelle in 2021, and whether a border dispute that has simmered for years becomes a war between two states.
From a broken peace to a new offensive
The Pretoria agreement, signed in November 2022 with African Union facilitation, ended a 2020–2022 war that killed hundreds of thousands of people, by most estimates, and displaced millions, according to Al Jazeera. Its hardest questions, including disputed territories, the return of displaced people and disarmament, were never resolved. In July, the TPLF said the agreement had effectively collapsed. The federal government rejected that and accused the TPLF of undermining it.
Fighting resumed in earnest in late September. Al Jazeera, citing AFP, reported that a seven-group armed alliance that includes the TPLF began fighting federal forces on Sept. 23 and captured the airport in Mekelle, which halted flights from Addis Ababa. Wikipedia's account of the offensive describes the grouping as the Ethiopian People's Forces Coalition for Survival, announced on Sept. 20, and lists the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army among its members, though it notes that membership claims were disputed. Ethiopia's army chief of staff, Birhanu Jula, accused Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan of supporting the group, according to the Critical Threats Project (CTP). Sudan and Egypt deny involvement, and Eritrea has denied helping form the coalition.
The fall of Mekelle and the push north
Federal forces and the Tigray Peace Force, a federally backed Tigrayan group, took Mekelle on Saturday, Oct. 3. The TPLF confirmed it had withdrawn, saying it had "temporarily moved out of Mekelle" and that the regional government would "operate from somewhere else," Al Jazeera reported. The party described the move as tactical and said its fighters would keep fighting from other positions.
The TPLF has used this logic before. CTP noted that TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael warned on Oct. 1 that town losses would be temporary and that a counteroffensive would follow, and that the party retook Mekelle in June 2021 after leaving it during the earlier war.
CTP's timeline shows the federal side moving quickly. Forces reached Hagere Selam on Oct. 5 and 6, took Wukro by Oct. 7, entered Shire in the west on Oct. 8 with minimal fighting, and by Oct. 8 and 9 had advanced at least 30 miles north to the outskirts of Adigrat. AFP reported that Adigrat fell days before federal troops and an allied militia entered Adwa on Sunday, Oct. 11, a day after TPLF fighters withdrew, according to residents. One resident, identified only as Aferwerki, told AFP that shops were closed and that institutions including Adwa Hospital were looted the previous night. Another, speaking anonymously, said government forces had not yet reached the town center.
Air power has been central to the campaign. ACLED reported that an Ethiopian drone strike hit a hotel in Adwa on Oct. 4, wounding between five and nine people, and some of its sources said Debretsion and other senior officials were there, a claim that remains unverified. CTP reported that strikes in Adwa on Oct. 4 and 5 reportedly killed nine people and strikes near Sheraro killed eight.
Normalization, and a government-in-waiting
Federal officials are working to show that civilian authority is returning. Ethiopian Airlines resumed flights between Addis Ababa and Mekelle on Sunday, the first since Sept. 23. Getachew Reda, a former Tigray leader who now advises Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, was welcomed in Mekelle in a procession of soldiers, accompanied by intelligence chief Redwan Hussein, AFP reported. Getachew said the government would "bring visible change, a change beyond mere hope."
Abraham Belay, a former president of the Tigray Interim Administration, told Al Jazeera that preparations were under way for a new interim administration and regional elections "within months," built up from the village level. Such an administration would sit alongside, and in competition with, the TPLF's own claim to govern the region, and how Tigrayans receive it will be a test of the federal government's strategy.
Residents describe a fragile atmosphere. Goitom, 37, in Mekelle, told Al Jazeera the departure of the TPLF left a security vacuum, with some theft from government offices, and that it "feels like we are back to square one." Berihu, 32, a driver in Shire, said he felt "very heartbroken" that Tigray had "gone back to full-scale war." Asked whether the TPLF would comment, its vice president, Amanuel Assefa, told AFP he "did not wish to comment."
The Eritrea problem
The regional danger is sharper than the local one. On Oct. 1, Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, and Eritrea severed diplomatic relations, according to CTP and Al Jazeera. Eritrea fought alongside the federal army in the 2020–2022 war, which makes the rupture notable.
On Oct. 7, Ethiopia's communications minister demanded that Eritrean troops leave "without delay," and Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos wrote to the UN Security Council describing an "all-out invasion" and invoking self-defense, CTP reported. A senior Ethiopian official told Reuters that Eritrea had deployed one mechanized and three infantry divisions. CTP said it found no large-scale Eritrean buildup in satellite imagery and could not fully confirm the incursions, and assessed that any Eritrean presence was likely limited and aimed at shoring up a buffer zone for the TPLF. AFP, ACLED and Reuters reported that Eritrean forces pulled back north of Adigrat under heavy drone pressure, though Reuters sources were unsure whether they were redeploying within Ethiopia or leaving.
Eritrea rejects the premise. Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel wrote on X on Oct. 9 that Ethiopia's claims were a pretext for what he called an "unprovoked war of aggression," and Eritrean state television argued that a war on Tigray was a war on Assab, the Red Sea port, according to CTP. Al Jazeera reported that Eritrea has also asked the United Nations to intervene.
The port is the heart of the matter. Abiy said on Oct. 5 that Ethiopia would pursue direct sea access, CTP noted. Ethiopia, which has been landlocked since Eritrea's independence in 1993, has made its demand a signature theme, and Asmara reads it as a threat to its territory.
A regional chessboard
CTP documents a diplomatic realignment that complicates any local settlement. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki on Oct. 3, and on Oct. 4 a quadrilateral summit in Egypt that included Sisi, Isaias, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Sudan's Abdel Fattah al-Burhan produced the El Alamein joint declaration. The text did not name Ethiopia but addressed sovereignty, Red Sea governance and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. CTP also noted that Egypt has signed port and maritime agreements with Djibouti, Eritrea and Somalia between December 2025 and July 2026. Somalia, though, continues to cooperate with Ethiopia, and Abiy and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud have met at least seven times since 2025, CTP said.
Al Jazeera has examined where the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia stand, an indication that outside powers' positions are being watched closely as the Red Sea dimension of the dispute grows.
Pressure from other fronts
The war is not confined to Tigray. CTP reported that the Amhara Fano National Movement captured the town of Mehal Meda on Oct. 7 and attacked Dabat the same day, operations that strain federal supply lines. It also reported clashes near Alamata between the Tigray Peace Force and the federally backed Raya Zeb Amhara militia that reportedly killed more than 20 people, though CTP said it could not verify a claim that the Raya Zeb had been disarmed. Those tensions point to a larger problem for Addis Ababa: the forces fighting on its side do not necessarily share the same goals.
Humanitarian conditions are poor. Al Jazeera's analysis, as summarized by allAfrica, said about one million people remain displaced in Tigray and nearly four million need urgent assistance, with drought, food shortages and aid-delivery problems compounding the crisis. Telecommunications in the north have been disrupted, according to Wikipedia's account of the offensive, which also reports that the African Union Commission chair asked former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo to lead negotiations and that UN human rights chief Volker Türk urged de-escalation. Those details come from a single secondary source and should be treated with caution.
Analysis: a military win, an unresolved political war
Abiy's government has the momentum. Its drones, mechanized forces and Tigrayan allies have reclaimed the regional capital and the main northern road, and a TPLF that has largely withdrawn from its cities has not yet shown it can hit back. But the TPLF's withdrawal in 2021 was followed by a decisive comeback, and its leaders have been explicit that they expect to repeat it. Holding territory that stretches to the Eritrean frontier will require troops that the army also needs in Amhara and elsewhere.
The political track is thinner. An interim administration assembled under federal supervision will be tested by whether Tigrayans accept it, especially as civilian harm from airstrikes accumulates. And with Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan accused of backing Ethiopia's foes, a localized insurgency can quickly become a proxy contest.
What to watch
Observers will be looking at whether the TPLF leadership is located and whether it can mount a counteroffensive from the mountains or across the border; whether the Eritrean army either clashes directly with Ethiopian forces or stays out; whether the African Union, the United Nations or the Gulf states can broker a pause; and whether Abiy's plans for elections in Tigray proceed. Analysts cited by Al Jazeera have outlined three scenarios: spreading armed groups, a prolonged stalemate, or a full war between the two states. None looks remote.
