Written By | International News Agencies
Israelis went to the polls on October 27 in an election that was widely expected to be close
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Overview
One week after Israelis voted in the 26th Knesset election, the country's political map looks much as it did on the night of the count: a closed race in which neither side holds the 61 seats needed to govern. What has changed is the behavior of the players. On Monday and Tuesday, four opposition leaders met in Herzliya and announced they would begin coalition talks immediately, with the stated aim of replacing what they called the "October 7 government." Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose bloc finished eight seats short of a majority, has meanwhile continued to question the integrity of the vote, while his Likud party sought, unsuccessfully, to delay certification of the results.
The standoff matters well beyond Israel's borders. A government that can command a Knesset majority will decide how Israel handles the war with Iran and the pressure on shipping in the Gulf, the future of Gaza, and the country's relationship with a Washington that is itself about to hold midterm elections. A government that cannot be formed would push Israel toward yet another election, extending a period of instability that has already produced several rounds of voting in recent years.
Background: A Vote Decided by Turnout and Deadlock
Israelis went to the polls on October 27 in an election that was widely expected to be close. Final polls had shown Gadi Eisenkot's new Yashar party narrowly ahead of Likud, with neither the governing bloc nor the opposition anywhere near 61. Turnout was high; one outlet put it at 77.7 percent in its article text and 77.97 percent in its results panel, a small discrepancy that nonetheless confirms participation at the highest level in years.
The counting process added drama. Early projections and exit polls had suggested an opposition edge, but as ballots were tallied, and as a large number of double-envelope ballots were processed, Likud climbed. The Central Elections Committee announced results on October 28 after roughly five million votes had been counted, and those totals have since been broadly confirmed. According to Israel National News, Likud finished with 27 seats and Yashar with 21, followed by Naftali Bennett's Together (B'Yachad) list with 12, the Joint List with 11, the Democrats under Yair Golan with 8, Ra'am under Mansour Abbas with 8, and Otzma Yehudit, Yisrael Beytenu and United Torah Judaism with 7 each. Shas fell to 6, its lowest result since 1988, and the Religious Zionism-Zehut joint list also won 6.
Sources differ slightly on the details. The Jerusalem Post's earlier projection put Likud at 26, Shas at 7, the Joint List at 12 and Ra'am at 7, and one report counted the opposition total differently depending on whether Arab parties were included. The overall bloc arithmetic, however, is consistent across outlets: Netanyahu's religious-nationalist coalition holds 53 seats, the Jewish opposition parties hold 48, and the two Arab parties together hold 19. Two parties fell short of the electoral threshold, including the Reservists and Economic Party, which took 2.67 percent against the 3.25 percent required.
Key Developments: The Herzliya Meeting
The most significant development of the past 24 hours came when Eisenkot, Bennett, Golan and Avigdor Liberman of Yisrael Beytenu gathered in Herzliya. According to the Times of Israel, the four agreed to start talks without delay and issued a joint statement saying they would "act immediately to replace the October 7 government." They set out four guiding principles: recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, adherence to the Declaration of Independence, mandatory national service for all, and the designation of Hamas as a terrorist organization.
The leaders also agreed to back Eisenkot for the first mandate from President Isaac Herzog, who will begin consultations with party leaders before choosing a candidate to attempt to form a government. Bennett pledged that his entire party would mobilize behind Eisenkot. The group has also begun to discuss control of the Knesset itself, seeking to replace Likud's Amir Ohana as speaker and considering Yair Lapid as a candidate, with a decision expected early in the week according to Channel 12.
Yet the meeting left the central question unanswered. The four Jewish opposition parties together hold only 48 seats. To reach 61 they would need the 19 seats held by the Joint List and Ra'am, and most of the participants have long ruled out relying on Arab parties. Their statement did not explain how they would govern without them. Liberman went furthest, insisting that a government can be formed without Arab parties and rejecting a minority government that depends on their support. Golan is the only one of the four who has publicly embraced cooperation; he met Joint List leaders Yousef Jabareen and Ahmad Tibi, and the three sides agreed to keep coordinating toward what they call a change government.
The Arab parties have signaled willingness to help. Jabareen said his party was ready to "pave the way for the ousting of the Netanyahu government," while Tibi said the opposition could form a government "if it has the courage." Golan, for his part, said after the count: "Netanyahu lost. I know how to count to 120." There is also disagreement on the numbers; the Jerusalem Post's early figures put the opposition with Arab parties at 67, while Golan cited 65, a gap the paper did not explain.
Netanyahu's Response
Netanyahu has not accepted the narrative of defeat. Before and after the vote, he and Likud alleged fraud in Arab-sector polling, claims the Central Elections Committee has said it found no evidence to support in the form of systematic tampering. In the days since, Likud asked to delay certification of the results pending an interference probe; the committee chair rejected the request. Officials have said the process will go ahead on schedule.
At the same time, Netanyahu has shown he is willing to negotiate. He has said he is open to a "broad national government" under his leadership, a formulation aimed at peeling off centrist opposition figures. Eisenkot has rejected serving under Netanyahu, including in any rotation arrangement, and other opposition leaders have ruled out joining a Netanyahu-led coalition. The prime minister's path to 61 would therefore require defections that so far show no sign of materializing. Liberman has also warned voters that Eisenkot might seek a unity arrangement with Likud, a charge he summed up in the phrase "Gantz 2" in an earlier interview, which reflects the mistrust that remains within the opposition camp.
Reactions
The opposition has framed the Likud campaign over the results as an attack on democratic institutions. In a statement carried by the Times of Israel, opposition leaders condemned what they called a "dangerous and unhinged campaign" to delegitimize the election and the Central Elections Committee. Lapid said there was "a grave and dangerous attempt to undermine the election results" and called for Netanyahu's removal.
Pressure is also coming from outside the political class. Relatives of victims of the October 7 attacks urged the opposition leaders to build a government that excludes members of the previous one. Merav Swirsky told them: "You have a mandate to create a government of change." For many families, the demand is bound up with the unresolved questions about accountability for the failures that preceded the 2023 attack and for the continuing fate of hostages and soldiers.
Among analysts, the mood is cautious. Many point out that the opposition has achieved a rare thing, unity in the immediate aftermath of an election, but that unity of purpose is not unity of arithmetic. A coalition cannot be built on slogans alone, and the opposition's reluctance to rely on Arab parties echoes a long-running taboo in Israeli politics that the parties themselves may find hard to break, even as it threatens to hand the initiative back to Netanyahu.
What's Next
The immediate procedural steps are set by Israeli law. The election results are formally delivered to President Herzog, who then consults with the parties' representatives before assigning a mandate to the lawmaker he believes has the best chance of forming a government. The nominee has an initial period of 28 days, extendable by up to 14 more, so roughly 42 days in all, to present a coalition. If that fails, the mandate can pass to another candidate, and if no one succeeds, the Knesset can be dissolved and new elections called.
The opposition's choice for Knesset speaker is an early test. A bloc that can elect its own speaker demonstrates it can command a working majority, with the Arab parties' votes likely decisive. If Likud's Ohana is replaced, it would signal that the change bloc can act together; if the attempt fails, it would strengthen the argument that Netanyahu retains the upper hand.
Other variables loom. The regional situation, including the US-Iran confrontation and talk of possible US strikes after the American midterms, could pressure leaders to form a government quickly or, alternatively, to accept a broad unity arrangement they now reject. Netanyahu's continued challenge to the electoral machinery also carries risks for civil order. The coming weeks will show whether the Herzliya agreement is the start of a government or merely a statement of intent.
For now, the numbers have not moved: 53, 48 and 19. The next government will be decided by whether anyone is willing to cross the red lines they drew during the campaign.
