Written By | Health News Agencies
Doctors in the West say flu season has come about two months ahead of schedule.
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By Staff Health Reporter | SEATTLE, October 8, 2026
It isn't even Halloween, and the flu is already here.
Across the western United States, doctors are reporting a surge in influenza that would normally not arrive until the holidays. Hospitals are seeing sick children in numbers usually reserved for December. Health officials in California, Washington, Hawaii and Alaska are watching the share of positive flu tests climb sharply. And at least two people have already died: an adult in San Francisco and a man in his 50s in southern Nevada.
"We're about two months early," Dr. Danielle Zerr, who heads the pediatric infectious diseases division at Seattle Children's, told The Washington Post. "The way flu is circulating now, you wanted that vaccine in you two weeks ago, if not even a little before that."
The warning comes at an awkward moment. Many Americans haven't had their flu shot yet. And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which in past years would be in full campaign mode by now, has not launched a broad public push urging people to get vaccinated.
150 SICK KIDS IN TWO WEEKS
The numbers out of Seattle are startling. In the past two weeks, about 150 children have tested positive for influenza across the Seattle Children's hospital system, according to Zerr. During the same period last fall, there were about 10.
That is roughly 15 times as many cases, and a level the system normally doesn't see until early December. The share of flu tests coming back positive has also jumped, a sign the virus is spreading widely through the community rather than just showing up in a few unlucky households.
"This is really concerning because people haven't been working hard to get their vaccines quite yet," Zerr said.
Seattle isn't the only hot spot. Washington, Alaska, California and Hawaii are all reporting sharp increases in the percentage of lab tests that come back positive for influenza, The Washington Post reported on October 4. Nevada is seeing the same pattern, according to Becker's Hospital Review. In southern Nevada, health officials last week reported the region's first flu death of the season, a man in his 50s with underlying health conditions.
In San Francisco, the city's Department of Public Health confirmed its first flu death of the 2026-27 season last week. Officials said only that the person was an adult.
"This sad news reminds us that respiratory viruses such as flu and COVID should be taken very seriously, especially for people who are at higher risk of getting sick," San Francisco health officer Dr. Susan Philip said in a statement.
In California more broadly, flu activity began rising in September, months earlier than usual, prompting state health officials to urge residents to get vaccinated now, the San Francisco Chronicle reported on October 6.
WHY THE WEST, AND WHY NOW?
Here's the honest answer: scientists don't know yet.
Flu activity is still low nationally, according to the CDC. But it is rising. In the week ending September 26, 3.4% of clinical lab specimens tested positive for flu, and hospitals reported 2,572 lab-confirmed flu admissions, with the highest rate among adults aged 65 and older, according to the agency's latest FluView report. As of September 30, the CDC estimated that flu infections were growing or likely growing in 48 states.
One clue may lie in which strain is circulating. Early surveillance in Washington this fall shows the H1N1 strain predominating. Last season was dominated by a different strain, H3N2.
Dr. Helen Chu, an infectious-diseases professor at the University of Washington, told the Post that this shift could help explain the early takeoff. Because H3N2 ruled last winter, people may have less recent immunity against H1N1. Whether that is really what's driving the surge, and what it means for the months ahead, remains unclear.
Health officials are also keeping an eye on increased flu activity in parts of Asia, including Japan, and on international travel, which can move viruses quickly between countries, the Post reported.
Historically, seasons dominated by H3N2 have tended to be more severe, particularly for older adults. So an H1N1-led season isn't necessarily a worse one. But an early season means the virus gets a head start on people who haven't been vaccinated yet.
A SEASON WITHOUT A NATIONAL WAKE-UP CALL
In most years, by early October, Americans would be seeing public-service ads reminding them to roll up their sleeves. Not this year.
The CDC has not launched a broad public flu vaccination campaign this fall. An HHS spokesperson told the Post the CDC is developing a communications strategy on flu vaccination. The CDC also told NPR that it is not quite ready to issue advice on the vaccine, according to a KFF Health News summary of NPR's October 7 report.
The backdrop is a year of turmoil over vaccine policy. In 2023, the CDC launched a flu vaccine campaign called "Wild to Mild." Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ordered the CDC to halt promotions for that campaign early last year, the Post reported. Earlier this year, the federal government revised the childhood immunization schedule so that it no longer routinely recommended flu shots for children and teens. A federal judge put that change, along with other vaccine policy changes, on hold in March.
The legal fight is still going. On October 6, the Trump administration asked a federal appeals court to overturn a lower court's order blocking Kennedy's handpicked appointees from serving on the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), the CDC's key vaccine advisory panel. A Justice Department lawyer told the court the practical effect of the ruling is that ACIP has been blocked from meeting at all, The Hill reported.
For now, the CDC's influenza website still recommends annual flu shots for nearly everyone 6 months and older. A note at the top of the page, updated September 1, says that "because of legal uncertainties and inquiries," the recommendations from the July 2025 immunization schedule remain in effect for the 2026-27 season.
State and local officials are filling the gap. "Consider encouraging patients to get vaccinated as soon as possible, rather than waiting until later in the season, particularly in the Western region," epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers wrote in her weekly newsletter for clinicians.
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE: DON'T PANIC, BUT DON'T WAIT
Not every expert is sounding a full alarm. Flu seasons are notoriously difficult to predict, said Dr. Robert Hopkins, medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases and an infectious diseases physician in Little Rock, Arkansas.
Hopkins told the Post he has seen a few more flu cases this fall than usual in his region, but not a dramatic jump, and so far more COVID-19 cases than flu. The CDC expects a moderate season overall, though it stresses there is considerable uncertainty this early.
What experts do agree on is timing. The flu shot takes about two weeks to build protection. Clinicians usually advise getting it by the end of October, but in the West, the virus has already beaten that deadline.
Zerr worries that some people who would normally get vaccinated simply haven't had the chance yet. "The flu came so early this year that all the people who would normally get vaccinated might just not have had the opportunity yet or just hadn't taken the opportunity to do it," she said.
The stakes are real. The CDC estimates the 2024-25 flu season caused 51 million illnesses and 45,000 deaths, including 298 children. Last season was considered moderate across all ages but high severity for children.
Flu vaccines are less effective at preventing infection than some other vaccines, such as the measles shot. But multiple studies have shown that the flu vaccine reduces how sick people get and prevents hospitalizations and deaths.
There may be better tools ahead, too. Researchers reported on October 6 that a single dose of a new experimental nasal-spray flu vaccine boosted immune responses in older adults and offered broad protection against multiple flu strains, according to The Baltimore Sun. That vaccine isn't available yet, so experts say this year's shots are the best protection right now.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU
If you live in the West, doctors say the time to act is now. Even if you live elsewhere, the CDC estimates infections are growing in most states. Here's the practical checklist:
COVID-19 is still circulating too, though the summer wave appears to be leveling off nationally. RSV remains very low nationally, but Florida is reporting increases in RSV-related emergency visits and hospital admissions among children younger than 5. San Francisco health officials are also urging people to stay up to date on COVID and RSV shots where eligible.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Nobody knows yet whether the West's early surge is a warning sign of a rough winter or a strange blip that will fade. But the doctors seeing the sick children aren't waiting to find out.
"September simply does not normally look like this," as the Post put it. For the families now filling waiting rooms in Seattle, flu season has already started, and doctors say the cheapest, simplest protection is still a shot in the arm.
