Written By | International News Agencies
Trump's slide has been gradual rather than sudden, but pollsters and news organizations consistently link it to the cost of living, and in particular to fuel prices
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World Politics
Overview
Two weeks before the November 3 midterm elections, new polling shows President Donald Trump at the lowest point of either of his terms in office and the Democratic Party enjoying its widest advantage of the election cycle. A Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Monday found Trump's approval at 31 percent, down a point from two weeks earlier, while Democrats led Republicans by 12 points, 47 percent to 35 percent, among registered voters on the generic congressional ballot. A separate Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos survey put his approval at 33 percent, also a record low in that series, and an NBC poll released Sunday found 55 percent of respondents saying they would vote for a Democrat if the election were held now.
The numbers matter because the midterms will decide control of both chambers of Congress for the final two years of Trump's term. A Democratic House or Senate would give the opposition subpoena power, a platform for oversight, and a veto over legislation, and would complicate the president's agenda, including his handling of the war with Iran and his trade policies.
Background: A War, Fuel Prices, and a Souring Economy
Trump's slide has been gradual rather than sudden, but pollsters and news organizations consistently link it to the cost of living, and in particular to fuel prices. The United States and Israel began military strikes against Iran in late February, with Al Jazeera dating the start of the war to February 28. The conflict, which has since disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed up gasoline and diesel prices and had knock-on effects across the economy. In the Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos poll, seven in ten Americans said gasoline is becoming unaffordable. Headlines on related Reuters coverage also point to rising inflation and growing fears of interest rate increases ahead of the vote, though the details of that reporting were not available for this article.
Disapproval of Trump's economic stewardship is now broad. In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, 68 percent of Americans disapprove of how he is handling the economy, including 37 percent of self-identified Republicans. Voters also rated Democrats ahead of Republicans on economic stewardship, 40 percent to 33 percent, an unusual reversal for a party that has often held an advantage on the issue. The NBC poll found that 71 percent of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track.
Key Developments: The Numbers in Detail
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online over four days and surveyed 1,679 US adults, including 1,279 registered voters. The credibility interval is about two percentage points for all respondents and three points for registered voters. Trump's 31 percent approval is the lowest Reuters/Ipsos has recorded in either of his presidencies.
The generic ballot result is perhaps the more consequential finding. Two weeks earlier, the same pollster found Democrats ahead 44 percent to 37 percent, a seven-point lead. The gap has now widened to 12 points, the biggest Democratic advantage of the current cycle. Women favored Democratic candidates 50 percent to 32 percent, and men also leaned Democratic, though by a smaller margin. Other polls reported by Al Jazeera and other outlets paint a consistent picture, even if the specific numbers vary with methodology: 33 percent approval in the Post/ABC/Ipsos survey, and a majority-Democratic preference in the NBC poll.
Analysts caution that national generic ballot figures are not seat projections. They measure overall sentiment and cannot capture the district-by-district and state-by-state contests in which Republicans retain structural advantages, and, as the Cook Political Report noted, a financial edge in almost every competitive Senate state.
The Race for Congress
The Cook Political Report's October 6 Senate analysis, written by Jessica Taylor, said a Democratic majority is now "squarely in sights." Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate, and Cook estimated they could pick up between two and six, a range that includes the number they need. In its words, the question is no longer whether Democrats will gain seats but how many. Cook shifted Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss Up, moved New Hampshire from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, and moved North Carolina from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat, all changes in the Democrats' favor. The report added that Trump is a drag on Republican candidates even in deeply conservative states, citing rising fuel prices and the cost of living. Republicans still hope to flip Michigan and hold Maine, outcomes that could narrowly protect their Senate majority.
The president's own travel schedule reflects the stakes. According to the Anadolu Agency's morning briefing, Trump left on Monday for a campaign stop in Kansas, a state that until recently was considered safely Republican in the Senate race and is now rated a toss-up. The details of the House outlook were not available in the sources reviewed for this article, though the generic ballot movement points in the same direction as the Senate ratings.
Reactions
The coverage reviewed for this article did not include a White House response to the new polls, and none was reported by Reuters or Al Jazeera in the versions available. Trump has in the past dismissed unfavorable polling as inaccurate or biased, but the sources here do not show him doing so this week. What the available reporting does show is a president campaigning on other fronts: on Monday he questioned the role of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in peace talks, telling reporters that "it's time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine," and he floated a three-way summit with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping that he said should concentrate on nuclear disarmament. Both subjects have drawn criticism from allies, and both compete for attention with the domestic cost-of-living story that polls say voters care about most.
Democrats, for their part, are treating the numbers cautiously but have a clear message. The Cook analysis suggests the party's candidates are benefiting from a national mood in which voters want change. Reuters has reported on a separate poll in which a majority of Americans said Trump prioritizes his personal wealth over all else, and another in which voters said they were frustrated and wanted change; the details of those surveys were not examined here.
Analysis: How Much Can the Polls Tell Us?
Midterm elections traditionally punish the president's party, and a president with approval in the low thirties is historically a significant liability for his party. Yet the gap between an approval rating and an election result is not automatic. Congressional elections are decided in individual districts, with local candidates, local money, and turnout operations that national polls do not measure. Republicans remain better financed in most competitive Senate races,.
Still, the direction of travel is hard to ignore. The Democratic lead on the generic ballot grew by five points in two weeks, rating agencies are moving races toward Democrats rather than away, and Republican voters themselves are showing discontent on the economy: more than a third say they disapprove of how Trump is handling it. If those Republican doubters stay home rather than switch sides, turnout rather than persuasion could do much of the damage.
The war with Iran is the wild card. Voter anger over gasoline prices is tied directly to a conflict the administration started and has so far been unable to end. Any de-escalation that brought prices down in the next two weeks could help Republicans; further disruption in the Strait of Hormuz or new attacks in the Gulf could do the opposite. With early voting already underway in many states, time for a reversal is short.
What's Next
Voting continues through November 3, and pollsters will release several more surveys in the final stretch. Watch for movement in Kansas and the other newly competitive Senate states, for further rating changes from Cook and other forecasters, and for whether Trump's campaign-trail appearances in red states reflect genuine worry about Republican seats. A Democratic majority in either chamber would transform the final two years of the presidency, bringing investigations, funding fights, and a check on war powers. A Republican hold, by contrast, would suggest that the structural advantages mentioned above outweigh a historically poor approval rating. Two weeks from now, voters will say which it is.
