Written By |
Law makers during the presentation of the National Development Plan IV to Parliament’s Budget Committee (courtsey photo)
Search
By Our Reporter
The Ugandan government has hailed the decline in fertility rates as a milestone for economic sustainability, sparking a heated debate in Parliament about the implications of reduced population growth.
During the presentation of the National Development Plan IV to Parliament’s Budget Committee on January 6, 2025, Minister of State for Planning Amos Lugoloobi highlighted achievements from the previous plan, noting that the fertility rate dropped to 5.2 children per woman in 2022/23 from 6.2 in 2010. While Lugoloobi praised the decline as progress, Patrick Isiagi, Chairperson of the Budget Committee, questioned whether it should be celebrated. “We need to triple [the fertility rate],” Isiagi argued, to which Lugoloobi warned, “That would be too dangerous for the economy.”
Data from the 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey underscores the regional disparities in fertility, with rates ranging from 3.5 children per woman in Kampala to 7.9 in the Karamoja region. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) links higher fertility rates to elevated poverty levels, asserting that large family sizes hinder investments in education and health, thereby stalling socioeconomic development.
The National Planning Authority (NPA) echoed these concerns, citing Uganda’s low human capital index of 0.38, which indicates that children born today will achieve only 38% of their full productive potential. Lugoloobi highlighted gaps in the vocational and higher education systems, emphasizing the need for practical training to align with labor market demands.
Beyond population issues, Lugoloobi reported strides in infrastructure development, with Uganda’s paved national road network expanding from 3,112 km in 2010/11 to 6,999 km in 2023/24. However, he emphasized the urgent need for maintenance and diversification of transport infrastructure, advocating for investments in air, water, and rail transport to reduce urban congestion and lower costs.
The NPA also flagged the high cost of capital as a major impediment to economic growth. Lugoloobi attributed this to an oligopolistic banking sector, speculative tendencies, and low savings rates, noting that Uganda’s financial market is dominated by short-term capital unsuitable for long-term investments.
Torch Media Africa
